Prediction of spring ice phenomena on lakes and reservoirs using teleconnection indices

Abstract

The investigation is aimed to develop techniques for long-term forecasting the timing of the final disappearance of all ice on Lake Baikal, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Bratsk and Ust-Ilimsk reservoirs using teleconnection AO (Arctic Oscillation) index values. The methods suggested by author permit to anticipate a character of the ice situation with the average earliness from 21 to 48 days and the maximum one from 35 to 60 days. The probability of the permissible error value of the proposed predictive dependencies is from 88.9 to 100.0 %, their correlation index ranges from 0.89 to 0.93. The values of the prognostic information coefficient above 0.83 demonstrate the temporal stability and practical use possibility of the obtained predictive techniques. Thus, tests of potency of the developed forecasting techniques show a good quality of predictions of the dates when the South, Central and North basins of Lake Baikal, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Bratsk and Ust-Ilimsk reservoirs become totally free of ice.